Luke LI

沉寂了半年多没有写Blog, 今天是一生中最重要的一天，应该纪念一下。最近半年的生活异常的忙，尤其是最近几个月，等闲下来补一下blog。

今天是党的生日，香港回归纪念，媳妇外婆的生日，颇有意义。于是决定跟党走，下午在卢湾区民政局注册结婚。

或许因为媳妇长的端正，卢湾区民政局的同志提出赠送我们一个参加”2009上海玫瑰婚典”活动的名额，据说一共10对选送名额。我们从来没有听说过这个，开始以为是什么变相推销，勉强答应，回来在网上搜索了一下2008年上海玫瑰婚典的视屏全程

http://v.ku6.com/show/g_BzoF5OpEFHx01e.html，才发现原来这个活动大有来头，上海旅游节的一部分，同时也是婚庆公司玫瑰婚典的宣传活动(通过举办40对集体婚礼，来吸引几千倍的生意)。Anyway, 对我们来说免费的就好，最近两个月买了两套房子(准确的讲是1.6套)，一贫如洗(去登记的时候，身上只有15块钱，还好结婚只要了我们9块钱)，连媳妇的钻戒都暂时打白条。

还没有想好要不要办酒席，在哪里办，怎么办，待续….

Panic sell-off hits property counters

Mainland sector outpaces drop in broader market

Peggy Sito  | SCMP

Oct 28, 2008          

Mainland property stocks dropped yesterday amid heavy sell-offs in Hong Kong and global stock markets.

With Hong Kong shares down 12.7 per cent in their biggest single-day drop since 1997, some mainland developers fell at an even sharper pace, led by Guangzhou R&F Properties, China Aoyuan Property Group (SEHK: 3883), Country Garden Holdings and Agile Property Holdings (SEHK: 3383).

R&F Properties fell 51.06 per cent to HK$2.30 in morning trade on rumours the company had failed to repay bank loans. The stock closed at HK$3.65, down 22.34 per cent.

R&F Properties yesterday said operations were normal.

"There has not been any instance where the company failed to repay the principal or interest of its bank loan as and when it is due," the company said.

The company also said it had not invested in any financial derivative instruments and controlling shareholders had not pledged any shares in the company in relation to any borrowings.

China Aoyuan fell 16.92 per cent to 54 HK cents, Agile Property retreated 15.38 per cent to HK$2.20 while Country Garden fell 15.72 per cent to HK$1.34.

"The panic selling was unexpected," said JP Morgan analyst Raymond Ngai.

"In terms of fundamentals, the mainland economy is relatively strong compared with the rest of the world, with at least 7 to 8 per cent growth in gross domestic product this year.

"However, those are not the factors stock investors are considering."

Mr Ngai said investors were still bracing for the bottom as hedge funds continued to dump assets to meet redemptions.

"The stimulus measures announced by the government failed to revive the property market amid such gloomy market sentiment," he said.

Last week, the central government cut tax, down payments and mortgage rates on home purchases in an effort to bolster the market after prices recorded the smallest gains in three years.

The National Development and Reform Commission said home prices increased 3.5 per cent year on year last month. It was the slowest growth since July 2005, when the number of cities sampled in the survey was doubled to 70.

Patrick Yiu Ho-yin, an associate director at CASH Asset Management, said share prices of mainland property developers gained after the central government announced the measures last week.

"Therefore, they fell faster [yesterday]," Mr Yiu said.

But he said investor confidence in mainland developers would improve if the government continued to announce more measures.

Analysts said Beijing might loosen its policy on second mortgages should the existing stimulus package fail to boost demand.

With endorsement from the central government, local governments had more incentive to launch supporting measures, they said.

楼市的“解放军”最终还是来了…其实AWSJ的分析还是挺客观的…其实如果目前低迷的交易量再持续半年到一年，中国的房价可能确实可以从目前的水平再降20-30%，回到2006年的水平 (尽管谁也不知道随之而来的其他连带效应会怎样)。

虽然说现在大部分还没有买房的人对目前国内的房价大有痛打落水狗的感觉，这毕竟只是楼市这盘大棋中一个Stakeholder的看法，从经济决策者的角度看，两害相权取其轻，在经济的全面下滑和适度对楼市松绑来拉动经济之间，后者的风险要小一些，虽然这个抉择可能很难—between a rock and a hard place…中国的楼市按照08年前10个月这样下去也不是办法，最后总不能玉石俱焚吧—如果开发商都破产了，谁来造房子？毕竟刚性需求还是确确实实存在的。

只是辛苦了中国的老百姓(尤其是那些还没有买房却正打算买的)，用自己的血汗钱撑着美国政府还不够(through the funding of US Government bonds)，还要在全世界经济衰退的时候撑着中国的经济…无愧是recession最可爱的人。

中国力保房地产业

2008年10月24日09:50 Asian Wall Street Journal

中国政府正在迅速采取行动，希望确保世界上最大的房地产热点市场之一不至于崩溃。

今后几个月中国房地产市场的低迷状况如何演变将在很大程度上决定全球金融危机期间中国经济减速的严重程度，以及随着中国对建筑材料的需求下降，房地产萧条对全球经济产生的影响。

尽管全球的房地产泡沫都已破裂，但中国市场却被认为有所不同，因为其房屋建设的增长较少受到金融杠杆的推动，而主要是由于城市化人口迅速增加带来的真实需求。每年，中国各地共有1,500万至2,000万人迁移到城市之中。

但中国新屋销售量近几个月来大幅下降，买家都对经济恶化和房价走软感到恐慌。

随着经济增幅的放缓速度超出了人们预期，政府部门开始从试图控制价格到鼓励买家购房。本周政府宣布了税收减免、对首次购房者降低首付要求和贷款利率等措施。

如果房地产业继续下滑，中国可能难以将增长率保持在8%以上，政府长期以来也将这个增幅视为是保持经济繁荣的最低要求。建筑业直接雇用的人员就有8,000多万，因此长期的低迷也可能带来更多失业和社会动荡。

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)驻北京经济学家保罗•卡维(Paul Cavey)说，房地产市场决定着经济的变化。基础设施投资依然强劲并有可能加速，但随着全球需求减弱，出口正在放缓并可能在今后几个月迅速恶化。他说，这就使房地产成为了至关重要的因素。

中国的住宅投资占经济的比重甚至比美国还要大。去年这个数字已升至国内生产总值(GDP)的10%，而美国的这个比例为4.6%。但房地产给金融体系带来的风险似乎比美国小：住房抵押贷款占中国各银行贷款总额的12%，对开发商的贷款占7%。而根据渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的数据，在美国，房地产相关贷款占商业银行贷款的50%以上。

因为房地产可以推动对众多产品的需求，随着中国对大宗商品需求的下降，全世界都感受到了房地产低迷的影响。由于近几个月来建筑业的放缓，中国9月份的钢铁产量也比上年同期下降了5.5%。这导致了钢铁价格的下跌，一些小厂家被迫倒闭。家用电器零售商也公布近几个月来销售低迷，现在厂家已开始减产：9月份空调的产量下降了21%，电冰箱的产量减少了6.5%。

就在1年前，对房地产的热情还异常高涨，人们在全国各地的新房地产项目外排起长队，伺机立即买进。但对泡沫不断扩大的担忧开始加剧，政府逐步采取措施限制投机性买家，希望从房价中挤出一些泡沫。这些措施似乎正按预期发挥作用，直到全球金融危机令消费者恐慌起来，打消了对中国前景的许多乐观看法。

去年的房屋销售曾一度比前一年增长了50%以上，但今年初却出现了疲软，现在甚至在大幅下跌。8月份的销售面积下降了36%。8月份和9月份的全国平均房价都较上月出现了下降，由于现金紧张的开发商被迫收缩业务，新建筑的增长势头明显放缓。

西安新兴房地产开发有限公司(China Housing & Land Development Inc.)首席财务长William Xin说，现在所有人都认为价格将会下行。而开发商不想降价。没有人想卖，也没有人想买。

由于政府政策加剧了房地产市场的低迷，许多人都希望政府能够重新启动这一市场。财政部在一份声明中称，新的政策将减轻广大人民群众特别是中低收入者的购房负担，扩大住房消费需求。

政府迅速做出的反应显示出房地产对中国近年来经济增长所发挥的核心作用。根据一份官方统计，自上世纪90年代后期实行住房私有化以来，中国城市中共建设了大约3,000万套新房，其中大多数都属于商品房。这份统计报告可能还大大低估了实际的水平。

问题在于，鉴于全球经济减速也打击了市场信心，政府的措施现在能带来多大的改变。不但投机性购房者已不再购买第二套房屋，新的房屋买家也选择了观望。

北京市38岁的IT从业人员赵伟（音）说，他不想再租房了，想拥有自己的房子，但现在尚未采取行动。他说，降点税或是调低首付对我来说并不重要。房价才是最大的问题。我会再等上半年到一年，希望房价能继续下跌。

 这种态度有可能带来破坏性很大的恶性循环：随着买家观望，等待价格进一步下跌，开发商会进一步收缩建设计划，进而加剧经济低迷，鼓励买家等待更长时间。央行8月份的一份调查发现，13%的家庭计划在今后3个月里购房，为历史最低水平。

10月17日，上周五，中午中餐后，从办公室遥望陆家嘴绿地，看到几个很大的气球和一些布景，不解，和同事笑曰： “估计又是哪家结婚的外景，还挺有派头” …没想到是Michael Scofield…作为PB Season 1的Fans…扼腕呀…以后每天一定要先看东方早报娱乐版再看华尔街日报….

米帅上海陆家嘴绿地人工湖拍片 酷似007

www.jfdaily.com 2008-10-18 09:29 稿件来源：新闻晨报

　　在陆家嘴绿地的人工湖中，米帅乘着摩托艇破浪而来，然后从临时搭建的小码头上一跃而上，行走在由环球金融中心构成的“背景”上，霎时间闪光灯不断，这一亮相酷似007登场。

　　虽说ME&CITY品牌公司表示，除了工作时间，他们不干涉米勒的私人活动，现在看来，只怕米勒难以有“私人”的时间。前天到达上海之后，他就开始试装，而昨天上午10点开始，米勒就已经投入了工作。在陆家嘴绿地中构建的巨大活动场地里，米勒只花了短短20分钟就完成了走场，随后一行人赶往十六铺码头，准备给一本国际时装杂志拍摄大片。

　　米帅良好的工作习惯在昨天展现得一览无遗，他甚至比约定时间提前了一个小时就到达了码头，这让习惯了明星迟到的公关公司十分惊讶。同时，为了节约时间，米勒的午餐和所有的工作人员一样，仅仅是一份八块钱的盒饭，里面有一点炒卷心菜，一点豆干炒肉丝，比大多数剧组群众演员吃得还要简单。他唯一的要求就是：星巴克的星冰乐，这是他多年以来的爱好。用他的话来说：“给了自己一个可以从早上就开始吃甜食的借口。”在准备拍摄的时间里，除了试服装、化妆，米勒还完成了200张照片的签名。

　　时装大片的拍摄非常顺利，杂志包下了一艘三层楼的游轮，在黄浦江上来回开了两个小时。期间，米勒所拍照片的背景中，囊括了几乎所有浦江两岸最具上海特点的景色，而他也为上海的建筑所倾倒。他感叹，即便在美国，也只有在城市最繁华的区域，才能看到这样现代而壮观的建筑群。

　　随后，最让粉丝们激动的时刻到了：在主办方的日程中本来没有安排影迷见面会的环节，但是米勒提出应该给影迷一个机会。于是，经过长时间选拔而出的20个粉丝，以两人为一组，轮流上游艇，和米勒合影、得到他的亲笔签名和馈赠的礼品。十分有意思的是，米勒赠出的礼品是一双瓷质的筷子。每个粉丝和米勒在一起的时间虽然只有短短的两分钟，但是惊喜不断，因为他们还意外得到了一张昨晚庆功宴的邀请函。

　　米勒昨天的行程以一个十分惊艳的亮相结束。正当聚集在人工湖边的所有媒体为没有在时装秀场上看到米勒而懊恼时，在探照灯的照射下，远处一艘摩托艇飞驰而来。艇上，米勒支起半身，远远地向众人露出微笑。当摩托艇靠在临时搭建的小码头上后，他一跃而上，行走在上海夜幕中。这时的米勒，仿佛变身成了《越狱》里的那个迈克·斯格菲尔德。

严重恭喜Paul Krugman拿了今年的Nobel 经济学奖…

研究生的时候曾经在NUS商学院的图书馆一页一页得复印他的International Economics, 看得如痴如醉…写得非常浅显易懂。

而且好像长帅了…有点像乔治克鲁尼啊…几年前看到他的Blog的照片感觉很邋遢的。

Paul Krugman wins economics Nobel

By GEOFF MULVIHILL and ELLEN SIMON, Associated Press Writers

Mon Oct 13, 7:08 PM ET

Paul Krugman, whose relentless criticism of the Bush administration includes opposition to the $700 billion financial bailout, won the Nobel prize in economics Monday for his work on international trade patterns.

The Princeton University professor and New York Times columnist is the best-known American economist to win the prize in decades.

The Nobel committee commended Krugman's work on global trade, beginning with a 10-page paper in 1979 that knit together two fields of study, helping foster a better understanding of why countries produce similar products and why people move from the small towns to cities.

Krugman (pronounced KROOG-man) is best known for his unabashedly liberal column in the Times, which he has written since 1999. In it, he has said Republicans are becoming "the party of the stupid" and that the economic meltdown made GOP presidential nominee John McCain "more frightening now than he was a few weeks ago."

But at a news conference, Krugman said he doesn't think he won the prize because of his political views.

"Nobel prizes are given to intellectuals," he said. "A lot of intellectuals are anti-Bush."

Tore Ellingsen, a member of the prize committee, acknowledged that Krugman was an "opinion maker" but said he was honored solely for his research.

"We disregard everything except for the scientific merits," Ellingsen told The Associated Press.

Following last year's Nobel peace prize award to former Vice President Al Gore and 2002's peace prize to former President Jimmy Carter, some on the right have dismissed the Nobels as politically motivated. By picking one of the best-known voices on the left three weeks before a presidential election, The Royal Swedish Academy is sure to provoke further criticism.

But academic economists said Krugman's work merited the prize.

"The prize was rightly given for his early academic work on the theory of international trade, not his more recent work as a political pundit," said Harvard economist N. Gregory Mankiw, former chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.

Krugman, 55, was the lone winner of the $1.4 million award and the latest in a string of Americans to be honored. It was only the second time since 2000 that a single laureate won the prize, which is typically shared by two or three researchers.

Krugman is the rare academic economist who is also part of pop culture. A YouTube video of Krugman's joint appearance with Fox News pundit Bill O'Reilly on "Meet the Press" has been viewed by more than 100,000 people. Besides co-authoring textbooks, he has written two best-sellers, "The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century" and "The Conscience of a Liberal," which has jumped into the top 25 on Amazon.com and is currently out of stock.

None of the books by last week's winner of the Nobel Prize for literature, Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio, reached that high on Amazon.

Always outspoken, Krugman has compared the current financial crisis to the Great Depression, saying Monday that he hoped a global effort to address the crisis might work.

"I'm slightly less terrified today than I was on Friday," he said, referring to the weekend talks among European leaders that led to the partial nationalization of British banks and unlimited access to U.S. dollars for banks worldwide.

That said, he hasn't found much to praise about the Bush administration's actions during the crisis. In a Times column Monday, Krugman commended British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling, saying they "went straight to the heart of the problem ... with stunning speed" by demanding ownership stakes in banks in exchange for financial aid, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson at first rejected that model

"And whaddya know," Krugman continued, "Mr. Paulson — after arguably wasting several precious weeks — has also reversed course, and now plans to buy equity stakes rather than bad mortgage securities."

The Bush administration would not comment Monday on whether Krugman would be invited to the White House, as is custom with American Nobel laureates.

Krugman said he hoped to continue focusing on his research and writing.

"The prize will enhance visibility," he said, "but I hope it does not lead me into going to a lot of purely celebratory events, aside from the Nobel presentation itself.

"I'm a great believer in continuing to do work," he said. "I hope that two weeks from now I'm back to being pretty much the same person I was before."

In awarding Krugman the Nobel, the Swedish academy said his theory helped answer pressing questions and inspired an enormous field of research.

Krugman's work looked at on how economies of scale — the idea that as the volume of production increases, the cost of making each unit falls — worked alongside population levels and transportation costs to affect global trade. Krugman's theory was that because consumers want a diversity of products, and because economies of scale make production cheaper, multiple countries can build similar products, such as cars. Sweden builds its own car brands for export and to sell at home, for example, while also importing cars from other countries.

"Trade theory, like much of economics, used to be discussed in the context of perfect competition: thousands of farmers and thousands of customers meeting in a market," with supply and demand governing prices, said Avinash Dixit, a Princeton economist who specializes in trade theory.

The theory changed as economists realized conditions in the market were imperfect, and that only a small number of companies in certain industries, such as autos, had economies of scale.

"Krugman was the main person who brought all the theory together, recognized its importance to the real world, produced a large expansion of international trade theory to make it more applicable to the modern world," Dixit said.

Krugman graduated with a bachelor's degree from Yale in 1974 and received a Ph.D. from MIT in 1977. Besides teaching at Yale and MIT, he also taught at Stanford. He is a native of Bellmore, N.Y., graduating from John F. Kennedy High School.

The last time an economist who was this well-known outside academia won the Nobel was 1976, when Milton Friedman, a University of Chicago professor who starred in a PBS series called "Free to Choose," took the prize.

The award is the last of the six Nobel prizes announced this year and is not one of the original Nobels. It was created in 1968 by the Swedish central bank in Alfred Nobel's memory.

The Nobels in medicine, chemistry, physics, literature and economics will be handed out in Stockholm by Sweden's King Carl XVI on Dec. 10, the anniversary of Nobel's death in 1896. The Nobel Peace Prize is handed out in Oslo, Norway, on the same date.

At Monday's news conference, Krugman was asked about China's economic future. He said he did not have an answer. "I've spent the last few years trying to save my own damn republic," Krugman said.

___

下午玩真人版CS大腿中了一枪，那个疼啊，都肿了…有同事居然把她丈夫的海军专用的防护服穿了出来，简直刀枪不入…太夸张了…欧的李宁牌运动裤薄得像一层纸…这个彩旦枪太原始了…国内都有激光的了…不用带什么防护面罩，也不会受皮肉之苦…

晚上公司聚餐一直折腾到10点多…不过回来后见到了久违的Dongjun GG, 当年在NUS念书的时候的室友, 房间里跑了两杯龙井…(是的，欧现在出差自带龙井了, 呵呵)…聊到12点…回想当年一个月的房租还要分三次付款的日子…居然才4-5年。

明天要6点钟起床去机场，全公司近百号人浩浩荡荡开往巴厘岛…The big presentation will start…

这retreat的强度果然不亚于当年清华的军训。汗。

上了一天的课，高效商务英文写作，还是有点收获的…晚上重温CPF Building的爱尔兰烤羊腿…然后陪同事去City Hall血拼…以前CapitaLand的同事喝茶…回到酒店和现在的同事在酒吧聊天(伏特加果然厉害)…居然一晃到1点了…

明天还是一天课…傍晚有个彩旦枪游戏(Paintball Game) – Team Building…有点像大学时候在宿舍的CS(反恐精英)真人版, …可惜那个时候对3D的感觉不好，主攻FIFA，应该和胖子多学学的…

泡了杯龙井醒酒，今天世界股市大跌，中国的地产股暴跌9%....CNBC在直播Lehman的CEO Dick Fuld在国会山被一群议员拷问他的令人吒舌的薪水，预感美国金融业高管的高薪时代快走到尽头了…呜呜，还没轮到我混到高管呢…这是一个疯狂的年代…。

难得啊…公司终于稍微改变了过去26年“无可奉告”的作风，开始逐渐的增加透明度…a good start…

要增加emerging market和private equity的投资力度…欧们有的忙了….

(below all public information)

http://www.privateequityrealestate.net/Article.aspx?aID=0&article=28745 for the article

(http://www.gic.com.sg/newsroom_reports.htm  可全文下载这26年来第一份准年报

新加坡主权财富基金首次披露业绩 (Asian Wall Street Journal)
2008年09月24日10:56

人们对主权财富基金在全球市场扮演的日益重要的角色感到不安，为了缓解这种情绪，新加坡政府投资公司(Government of Singapore Investment Corp., 简称GIC)公布了包括投资去向在内的更多信息，并透露过去20多年的年均收益率为5.8%。

但这只通常守口如瓶的基金还是没有公布一些关键数据。GIC还对全球市场表示出怀疑，称期望未来能实现同样的收益率是“不现实的”。

GIC首席投资长Ng Kok Song说，放眼未来，我们看到的是自1981年GIC成立以来最具挑战性的投资环境。过去25年中推动全球资本市场发展的强劲通缩趋势似乎已经终结。

GIC的信息披露让人们对这家被认为是全球最大的投资机构之一有了新的了解。GIC首次发布的公开年报显示出，近年来它已经将投资重点从固定收益资产转向股票投资和私人资本运营及房地产等另类投资。GIC称，固定收益资产目前占其投资组合的四分之一左右，而25年前所占比例为四分之三。美国是其最大的投资市场，占投资总额的34%，日本位居第二，所占比例为11%。

由新加坡政界元老李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)创立的GIG自成立之日起就负责管理新加坡的外汇储备。GIC表示，头20年的投资业绩得益于全球经济发展和平抑的物价，年收益率曾一度达到8%以上，但近年来，从上世纪末的亚洲金融危机、本世纪初的市场暴跌到最近的信贷危机令收益率受损。同时，随着该公司规模扩大，收益率也有所下降。

GIC截止3月31日的20年5.8%的年均收益率是以新加坡元计算，在此期间剔除通胀的实际收益率为4.5%。以美元计，GIC的年均收益率为7.8%。

广告Ng说，金融机构解除过度杠杆以及食品和能源成本高涨会对未来的投资前景造成压力，但大型发展中经济体的国内需求可能会保持弹性。

GIC称其资金规模超过1,000亿美元，这个数字已经被沿用多年，但GIC拒绝详细说明管理的实际资金数额。GIC发表的声明也没有披露截止3月31日的上一财年业绩。

在从投行到基础设施建设的各个领域，主权基金的作用日渐重要，西方国家的投资者和决策者对此都表示了担忧，而GIC此次披露将产生何种影响还不得而知。GIC及其他主权财富基金都受到压力，要求它们更为透明，只基于投资回报的考虑来进行投资。

在周二发表的报告的前言中，GIC副董事长陈庆炎(Tony Tan)说，一些主权财富基金最近完成了起草指导主权财富基金投资的行为守则的谈判，GIC也积极参与其中。他表示，GIC的报告会让我们所投资的实体和国家相信我们的行动只有一个目的：财务收益。

周二，科威特神秘的投资基金科威特投资局(Kuwait Investment Authority, KIA)也难得地提供了其在全球金融危机中的近期业绩。该基金据估计管理着2,600亿美元资金，今年早些时候向花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)注资30亿美元，向美林(Merrill Lynch & Co.)注资20亿美元。

KIA董事总经理Bader Al Saad周二对Al Arabiya电视台表示，该基金在花旗的投资帐面损失达2.70亿美元左右。但该基金一直坚持说自己的投资是长期性的。

Costas Paris / P.R. Venkat / John Jannarone 

GIC to shift sights to emerging markets, private equity

Singapore’s largest sovereign fund has increased its investments in private equity and real estate in recent years – a trend likely to continue owing to the turmoil in the financial markets. The change was revealed as part of its first performance report, which also shed rare light into the GIC’s structure.

Posted - 24 Sep 2008 14:00 GMT CET

Christopher Witkowsky

The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, which is estimated to have assets worth more than $300 billion is turning its focus to emerging markets and private equity after sustaining big losses on the stakes it purchased in UBS and Citi.

The firm said at a media conference yesterday in Singapore that it was looking for more secure longer-term investment performance after observing the public market woes tied to the Asian financial crisis, the dotcom slump and the contracting global credit markets of the past year.

UBS shares have fallen 53 percent since the firm’s 11 billion Swiss francs ($10.1 billion; €6.9 billion) investment in December 2007, and Citi’s shares have declined 26 percent since the fund made its almost $7 billion investment in January.

Around 44 percent of the firm’s portfolio is invested in public equities and its investment in alternative assets like private equity and real stands at 23 percent. Of this, eight percent is invested in private equity, venture capital and infrastructure, and 10 percent in real estate. GIC said in its first performance report that in recent years, it has accelerated the pace of its real estate and private equity investments.

Seventy-five percent of the firm’s investments are in North America and Western Europe, including 34 percent in the US. GIC expects its investments in Asia to increase.

The firm’s annual returns for the past 20 years have averaged 7.8 percent. In contrast, Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s other sovereign fund with assets of $130 billion, has generated an 18 percent return compounded annually since its inception in 1974.

GIC was established in 1981 to manage Singapore’s foreign reserves. In August, GIC's real estate arm, GIC Real Estate, took a minority stake in Mexico Retail Properties (MRP), a developer and operator of retail properties in Mexico. in March, GIC formed a joint venture with Host Hotels & Resorts, the largest US Real Estate Investment Trust, to invest as much as $1.2 billion combined in hospitality opportunities across Australia and Asia .

This is the first time the Singapore sovereign wealth fund has disclosed a few details about its investment strategy and its internal structure. “With the release of this document, it is hoped that the global community will also appreciate the context and circumstances in which GIC operates, and be assured that GIC has and will always invest for only one purpose – to achieve sustainable financial returns for the government’s assets,” GIC’s deputy chairman and executive director, and former deputy prime minister of Singapore, Tony Tan said.

GIC is chaired by Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of Singapore and the island state’s prime minister from 1959 to 1990. His son Lee Hsien Loong – the prime minister of Singapore since August 2004 – is also a deputy chairman of GIC.

Siddharth Poddar contributed to this story.

回来啦。4小时30分，甬台温高速—杭甬高速—杭州湾大桥…500公里，Door to door，RMB 185 toll road fee + RMB 300 oil (实测小森的高速运行的油耗为11.4L / 100km，还行，不少轿车也就这水平…)… …应该说成绩还是不错的…甬台温高速宁波段的施工质量太差了，路面落差大的简直就像过山车…这次回来还是肩负运输赵氏母女的任务，现在赵宝宝已经和小森磨合得很好了，一上车倒头就睡…一直到终点…估计在车上的感觉太像摇篮床了…

在老家待了5天，一年中节奏最慢最悠闲最腐败的时光，刚好耀达商场买300送200…晃悠了几趟，居然买了1万块钱的行头 (一套很棒的西装，外加3双鞋，2条裤子，2件秋冬外套，3件羊毛衫…retail therapy…对了，还买了一对哑铃，天气转凉，一年中最适合打球的时间来了...要把双臂的力量练回来…)…接下来的几个月直到过年估计会异常的忙，虽然住在南京西路边上，在上海给自己买衣服的时间恐怕是没有了… 根据我们对市场的研判，从现在开始的12个月可能是buy-side fund在中国做地产金融的十年难得一遇的良机…15个月前大家都不缺资金，可现在情况刚好完全反过来…what a difference a year makes！现在只要愿意，几乎有看不完的deal…

回到了上海也就回到了现实…现在逐渐感觉到那位做PE的前辈在中欧所讲的“选择即放弃”的意义…路是自己选的，那就把它走好…不久前有一篇FT上的文章里有个华裔记者在上海待了一段时间说上海的3个月的节奏相当于美国的一年…欧觉得有可能…明天一早起来收拾行李，然后去公司把这一周的email给clear了…中午12点公司的车准时pick up去浦东机场…sigh…去巴厘岛这么浪漫的地方去参加那么不浪漫的活动 – 公司一年一度的Retreat (俗称魔鬼训练营)…Will be back on 10th Oct mid-night...

告别了北京美丽的晚霞(感觉后奥运时代北京的环境改善真的很大，希望能够坚持)，坐上了飞往上海的航班。

参加工作以来最漫长、强度最大的一次出差结束了。 高速运作了10天的脑子开始罢工，脸上多了颗大豆豆。 不想再看BlackBerry里堆积的Email…在飞机上也睡不着，要了两杯红酒，写写Blog纪录一下这两周吧。

15号把从舟山带回来的海鲜拉到Zhao Yingying家，幸福的赵外婆主厨，饱餐一顿。舟山人果然不乏奸商…螃蟹尽管都是活的，但都不是很肥…虾也不新鲜…而且也不便宜…sigh。赵姐姐让给她的千金取个英文名字的任务拖了好几个月一直没完成 (中文名字去年也是欧在探望的时候在医院帮忙取的，颇为得意)…推荐那几天很火的”森拉库”(13号台风的名字)，被否决… 下午把小森趴回公司车库，还在赵家拐角顺路洗了个车…才10块钱，真划算啊。

傍晚继续和台风”森拉库”斗争…在乌云密布中赶往浦东机场…市区已经开始下雨，担心飞机起飞受影响。上海的出租车司机拉上客人上了机场高速个个像喝了鸡血开F1一样，才不管你能不能起飞呢，上了这车不给120别想下来…万幸，赶在大雨前起飞…傍晚时分到香港…回想居然已经有2年没来了…可惜心情还是颇为低落，没有什么感觉。

找到万豪酒店…结果秘书忘了订房(还是一如既往的迷糊，不过也习惯了)…还好欧们是酒店的业主之一，Walk-in拿了个corporate rate，可惜是吸烟房…那个熏啊…这座酒店估计快20年了吧…设备什么的真的很老…开门居然还是用钥匙的…和国内遍地雨后春笋般的酒店的超一流的硬件水平形成对比鲜明…但是因为地处香港岛黄金地段，从盈利上来说绝对是一个Cash Machine…客房出租率非常高，每晚2800港币++还是Corporate Rate…

16号一早5点起床，在房间里点了些早点，然后就去IFC楼下集中了…某某投资银行包了一辆大巴…20几个Fund Manager开始了为期两天的珠三角住宅项目参观…第一天看了深圳，惠州的几个项目，晚上到东莞，住在最近因为万科的松山湖讲话名声大躁的松山湖凯悦酒店。刚刚落成的酒店，硬件自然不必说, 风景也很棒(面对一个比西湖还要大两倍的湖，不过我还是喜欢西湖)…居然Room Rate只有900块钱，真不知道怎么回收投资的成本…晚上大家边看Bloomberg边吃饭…那天好像Lehman倒闭了, Morgan Stanley和Goldman Sach当日也被众多Hedge Fund 卖空(naked short sell)危在旦夕…席间大家都和一个Goldman的JJ开玩笑说第二天回香港可能她们单位就没了…然后大家开始担心明年要是投行都倒光了，这种项目参观没人组织了。

17号在东莞看了几个盘，一路上感受了这座珠三角的世界工厂，和在苏州工业园/天津滨海开发区看到的崭新的厂房，珠三角的这些工厂确实颇有日渐衰败的感觉，开始担心这一带的竞争力，隐约感觉珠三角的黄金年代已经过去了。 下午杀回深圳…从传说中的西部通道(West Corridor)进入香港…过边检的时候因为护照上的出入境记录比较复杂，被祖国的边防GG当作嫌疑犯一样Question，态度极其不好…整车人等了我足足10分钟…欧的爱国心再次受到打击…

18-19号一直窝在万豪酒店没出来，20几家内地和香港的地产商在29层每家一个房间, One-on-One Meeting…因为确实没有时间做home work…通常是一进去打完招呼，对方开始讲他们上半年的业绩，欧们闷头狂看他们准备的中期报告…然后15分钟他们讲完后开始提问…每个会议一个小时，中间休息5-10分钟，从早上9点到下午5点，中午吃饭的半个小时还有两个key note speaker….两天下来，收获还是很多的。感觉很多香港的大牌地产商确实很有诚意，也很专业，派非常Senior的管理层来，对业务上的事情对答如流，印象最深的是恒基地产的那位Executive Director大伯，超帅超牛。相比之下，国内几家地产商不够重视，有的派一个只说中文的Manager在这边蹲点(倒不是说中文不好，目前国际资本市场的工作语言是英文是一个不争的事实，这也是对很多不懂中文的Fund Manger的起码尊重)，这股价从年初到现在都跌了70%了还是这态度…

20号会议结束，大周六的，还是要去深圳和广州看项目，一早去Business Center把一包开会拿回来的资料DHL回上海，居然要了800两银子…年底审计估计会怒的…然后有一个Consultancy安排车把我们拉到深圳的新CBD, 很仔细的看了几栋写字楼，都是待价而沽的…然后去了其他几个城区看了几块地，直奔火车站去广州，下午在广州参观了一座五星级酒店，也是要出售…在雨中逛了一下珠江新城 (现在每个城市都有一个新城，也已经快成规律了)，傍晚飞回上海，在虹桥机场拎了两个KFC回家，休整了一下。

21号上午把报告赶完，差点误了飞机，还好现在上海飞北京的飞机越来越像火车了，2点55起飞的2点50登机就可以了，傍晚和Ding Weiyi约好去他家做客看看他儿子，如约在东直门的机场快线门口碰头，小学就一起长大的朋友果然不一样，虽然快两年没见，还是非常亲切…Ding的儿子小名”小宝”…非常壮…也很调皮… 酒足饭饱，老Ding开车送欧去了华贸的Ritz-Carlton...顺便带着一家子去兜风…很羡慕啊…

22号开始又是开会，看楼…这次很系统的把北京的几个新兴的板块走了一遍，国贸，三里屯，金融街, 中关村等等…三里屯的几个新项目很棒，太古的Sanlitun Village值得称道，和同事在里面的那家Apple专卖店逛了很久，觉得自己现在用的IT设备简直就是石器时代的啊…等这批退役了，打算全部换Apple的…

22号晚上见到了Zi Wei GG, 大董烤鸭依然要排队，丝毫没有recession的迹象…来了一杯传说中的“大董微笑”…回到了华茂和前不久从上海调回北京的Fred小聚，此君从上海回北京就是为了和老婆团聚，结果被派到西安…sigh…在华贸看到一个车展…口水啊…

24号拜访了一家最近比较关注的公司，从东到西把它家的项目看了个遍…感觉很不错。可惜现在资本市场风声鹤唳，好公司的股票也被抛得一塌糊涂。我觉得大多数的受西方教育的基金经理不可能像我们这么仔细去看一个公司的项目，都是坐在几千公里外的地方用Excel做做Equity Valuation Model了事。所以觉得接下来半年还是做项目层面的直接投资比较好，只要对经济的基本面把握准了，5-10年的回报会很好的。

25号是最后一天，走访了一家还在IPO门口等待的地产商的几个项目，项目做的很好，早有耳闻，居然还有清华的博士在做销售，不知道这算是Free Market的魅力还是教育系统的悲哀。中关村一带的变化很大…几乎认不出来了。在同行的同事的要求下，去北大清华逛了逛，去看了一眼旧图，现在人少了，而且门口大家都开车来上自习了…

回到上海，公司的车把欧们接上，想了半天，还是决定去单位把小森开回家…手生啊，都分不清油门和刹车了…开到一半才意识到1个半小时前自己喝了两杯红酒…汗。

原本以为国庆大假周六就开始呢，结果一问，还要上三天班…扛一扛吧。

谋事在人，成事在天…台风森拉克拐了个弯，结果最终只能在舟山岛止步…从舟山岛往返普陀山岛的快艇可扛不住这么大的风….

还好有个plan B, 出发前向同事借了一个超牛的保温箱，昨天中午胜利大逃亡前在沈家门的东河海鲜市场买了一大堆海鲜回来…中午可以饱餐一顿。

沈家门的海鲜大排挡排场很大，已经由原来的小打小闹变成现在的有组织经营了。但是性价比超低，价格比上海还要贵！…基本都是宰客的(尤其是first timer…)..呜呜…应该找个当地人带着去的，或者干脆去Dingding家吃一顿就好了…百密一疏啊。

回来的时候经过传说中的杭州湾跨海大桥….太震撼了…

现在开始担心森拉克会不会影响傍晚去香港的航班了, 手机短信上今天上海的天气预报是大雨到暴雨…

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台风森拉克直扑浙江 闽浙紧急疏散18万人

台风森拉克直扑中国东南沿海，浙江省气象台14日上午11时发布黄色预警信号，福建省上午更挂出橙色预警信号，两省疏散超过18万人。预料未来24小时内，浙江温州、台州、宁波地区有大到暴雨，部分大暴雨。

　　星岛新闻集团消息，森拉克目前继续缓慢向西北方向移动，逐渐向浙闽沿海靠近。浙江省气象台14日上午11时发布黄色预警信号， 预料未来24小时内，温州、台州、宁波地区有大到暴雨，部分大暴雨。浙江沿海海面风力可达10－12级。

　　目前，浙南沿海已出现10级风，最大为南麂每秒25.4米。在近三小时，全省普遍下雨，主要集中在杭州东南部、绍兴北部、宁波西部。最大雨量在嘉兴海盐澉浦，3小时达45.1毫米。

　　沿海地区推迟开渔期时间，要求在森拉克影响未解除前，任何船只均不得出海。截至14日清晨6时，全省沿海逾三万艘渔船在港避风，15万6507人安全疏散。

　　浙江温州、台州、宁波所有沿海旅游景点全部关闭。台州在中秋假期后更延迟一天开学。宁波全市水库已预泄3500万立方米，河网已预排3700万立方米。

　　福建省方面，省气象台上午9时13分已把台风黄色预警信号，升级为台风橙色预警信号。闽江口以北沿海偏北风9至10级，阵风11至12级；闽江口到崇武之间沿海西北风8至9级，阵风10至11级。

舟山市气象台9月15日6点钟发布的台风警报和天气预报

台风警报

今年第13号台风 "森拉克"，今天早晨5点钟它的中心位置已经到达定海南到西南方向大约450公里的海面上，就是在北纬26.1度，东经120.9度，中心气压975百帕，近中心最大风力有12级。目前台风中心正以每小时10公里左右的速度朝偏北方向移动,预计未来将继续朝偏北方向移动，逐渐向浙闽沿海靠近,最大可能于今天紧靠浙闽沿海北上转向。受其影响，舟山沿海海面已经出现6-8级大风,预计今天傍晚增强到7-9级,夜里起8-10级继续增强到9-11级,并伴有中到大雨,局部暴雨。舟山渔场风力今天8-10级，夜里起继续增强到10-12级。目前正值天文大潮汛期间，希望出海船舶和各有关方面特别注意。

天气预报：

全市天气：

今天白天多云到阴，有时有阵雨,局部雨量中等，夜里起阴有中到大雨，局部暴雨。

明天阴有中到大雨转阵雨。后天多云。

全市今天最高气温28-29度，明天最高气温27-28度，明天最低气温24-25度，后天最低气温23-24度，

风力预报：

舟山市区：

今天东北到东风5-6级，阵风7级，傍晚起6-7级，阵风8级，夜里起7-9级,继续增强到8-10级，明天北到东北风8-10级，明天傍晚起7-9级。后天北到东北风6-7级，阵风8级，减弱为5-6级，阵风7级。

舟山沿海海面：

今天东北到东风6-7级，阵风8级，傍晚起7-8级，阵风9级，夜里起8-10级,继续增强到9-11级，明天北到东北风9-11级，明天傍晚起8-10级。后天北到东北风7-8级，阵风9级，减弱为6-7级，阵风8级。

大目洋、猫头洋、渔山、大陈渔场：

今天东北风8-10级，中午起北到东北风10-12级；明天北到东北风10-12级，明天下午起8-10级，明天夜里起7-9级；后天北到东北风6-7级，阵风8级，减弱为5-6级，阵风7级。

舟山沿海海面风浪：今天4级，傍晚起5级，夜里到明天6-7级，明天傍晚起5-6级，后天4级。

今天紫外线指数 二级，可以适当采取防护措施。

这运气…好不容易想中秋去趟普陀山…结果遇到今年第13号台风Sinlaku…几天前的预测路径还是直接去日本的，居然开始拐弯，直奔浙江沿海而来啊….

http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/read.php?tid=20165

人算不如天算啊…连普陀山的酒店都订好了…在Dingding的建议下，周一早上还打算在寺庙里吃早斋听早课…NO-SHOW是要罚钱的。 不管了，豁出去了…大不了困在岛上，再念一个研究僧Degree！还好，车子开了40天了，好像不漏水…

上午打电话到宁波的白峰码头的调度室 (信息时代真是好! 这种电话都能打通)…那位大姐说10级大风以内，汽渡船照开…太牛了…明天往车上装个救生圈先…

这两天把我们的travel agent 忙坏了…频繁的改航班…舟山的某酒店，普陀山的某酒店，JW Marriott Hong Kong, Hyatt Dongguan, Ritz-Carlton Beijing…后天一早开始云游四海的生活了。

各位中秋快乐！

几个同学有孩子了，最可爱的是第一任班长老熊的孩子…超级可爱，很羡慕啊。